* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KELI CP022025 07/29/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 36 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 36 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 33 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 10 16 17 21 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -4 -6 -5 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 298 296 286 270 267 262 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 137 134 130 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 52 53 50 49 52 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 21 22 16 14 15 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 26 17 13 15 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 0 2 -3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 968 859 756 661 604 674 836 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.5 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.1 150.6 152.0 153.7 155.3 158.5 161.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 16 16 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 18 17 15 15 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.7 149.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022025 KELI 07/29/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.60 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.61 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.69 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 20.1% 14.6% 11.9% 9.6% 17.5% 15.0% 11.3% Logistic: 1.3% 3.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 8.0% 5.5% 4.1% 3.5% 5.8% 5.0% 3.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.3% 5.0% 3.2% 2.5% 1.7% 2.9% 2.5% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022025 KELI 07/29/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##