* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KELI CP022025 07/29/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 34 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 34 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 34 34 32 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 7 10 11 18 18 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -5 -7 -8 -10 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 352 311 301 286 275 266 266 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.5 26.8 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 144 142 138 131 133 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 48 50 50 51 51 50 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 25 17 18 13 15 10 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 14 21 13 20 39 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -4 0 0 -2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1123 1007 901 796 702 641 753 943 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.3 148.7 150.0 151.5 153.1 156.4 159.5 162.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 16 16 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 18 15 17 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.4 147.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022025 KELI 07/29/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.63 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.69 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.46 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 19.5% 14.2% 11.8% 9.7% 17.8% 15.8% 11.8% Logistic: 3.5% 9.1% 5.4% 1.2% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 9.6% 6.5% 4.3% 4.0% 6.0% 5.3% 4.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.2% 5.3% 3.7% 2.6% 2.0% 3.0% 2.6% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022025 KELI 07/29/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##