* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KELI CP022025 07/29/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 34 34 33 33 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 34 34 33 33 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 34 34 32 30 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 3 7 11 13 19 16 20 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -1 -4 -5 -7 -6 -6 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 52 319 298 292 283 272 262 280 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.4 26.9 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 141 143 140 134 130 134 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 49 49 50 47 50 50 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 40 32 19 23 20 15 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 14 19 21 22 27 24 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -3 -3 -5 3 -2 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1226 1119 1017 894 782 628 662 814 1027 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.2 13.2 13.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.0 147.2 148.4 149.9 151.4 154.4 157.4 160.5 163.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 15 15 15 15 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 18 18 17 17 15 18 19 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 16. 22. 27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.4 146.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022025 KELI 07/29/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.62 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.74 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.36 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.0% 14.5% 12.1% 0.0% 17.9% 16.0% 12.2% Logistic: 3.1% 8.1% 5.4% 1.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 9.4% 6.6% 4.5% 0.5% 6.0% 5.3% 4.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .5% 5.7% 3.8% 2.7% .2% 3.0% 2.6% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022025 KELI 07/29/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##