* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KELI CP022025 07/28/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 42 44 45 44 41 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 42 44 45 44 41 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 41 42 43 42 40 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 4 5 7 12 14 9 16 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -1 -2 -6 -5 -5 -5 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 346 3 11 4 332 309 291 280 288 289 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.1 27.4 26.8 27.4 27.2 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 139 143 145 147 140 133 139 138 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 53 51 53 54 55 54 62 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 38 42 44 39 28 16 6 -15 -28 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 33 31 25 38 35 42 15 37 40 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -5 -5 -2 -4 0 -1 2 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1406 1342 1280 1193 1111 958 810 794 865 1034 1294 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 11.8 11.6 11.2 10.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.2 145.0 145.7 146.8 147.9 150.3 153.3 156.3 158.4 161.1 164.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 9 11 11 13 15 13 12 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 19 20 23 19 23 27 30 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 23. 27. 31. 35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.0 144.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022025 KELI 07/28/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.61 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 20.6% 16.5% 5.1% 5.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 7.0% 5.5% 1.7% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.4% 5.5% 4.2% 1.8% 1.4% .6% .5% .6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022025 KELI 07/28/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##