* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO CP022025 07/28/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 34 31 28 25 21 18 18 19 22 25 29 31 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 35 34 31 28 25 21 18 18 19 22 25 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 34 31 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 8 7 9 16 26 28 35 33 33 31 34 31 31 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -3 -1 0 -2 -1 -4 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 -11 -7 5 SHEAR DIR 349 310 297 290 280 254 246 249 254 257 261 243 237 236 245 283 360 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.6 27.0 26.4 26.1 26.2 26.8 27.2 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 143 141 136 130 127 128 135 139 144 147 151 152 151 152 157 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 55 53 52 51 49 48 45 46 48 51 51 54 51 53 52 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 40 41 42 37 21 10 4 7 -6 -11 -26 -36 -64 -92 -133 -162 200 MB DIV 57 54 42 43 46 45 44 21 10 -4 12 22 43 9 27 17 -8 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -5 -4 -1 1 8 1 4 4 5 -4 0 4 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1494 1392 1277 1148 1006 706 461 459 684 822 1050 1311 1612 1914 2240 2557 2856 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.2 14.2 14.9 15.6 15.9 16.5 17.2 18.2 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 143.2 144.2 145.3 146.6 148.0 151.1 154.6 158.3 162.1 165.7 169.0 172.2 175.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 14 15 17 18 18 18 17 16 16 17 17 17 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 16 15 14 11 10 10 16 26 27 28 32 30 31 24 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. 35. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -7. -12. -15. -17. -19. -18. -18. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -12. -11. -8. -5. -1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.0 143.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022025 TWO 07/28/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.65 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.85 5.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.16 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.7% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 13.3% 12.8% 3.6% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 13.1% 10.0% 1.2% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022025 TWO 07/28/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##