* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IONA CP012025 07/28/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 60 64 67 64 59 56 49 45 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 60 64 67 64 59 56 49 45 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 52 58 63 67 70 65 58 51 44 39 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 1 4 4 8 11 16 17 26 27 22 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 1 1 5 7 6 3 -1 0 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 82 86 162 298 317 271 268 303 291 292 279 247 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.3 27.4 27.0 27.3 27.3 27.4 28.0 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 148 145 144 138 140 136 140 140 141 147 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.5 -53.4 -54.0 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 53 51 51 49 49 48 48 47 48 57 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 16 14 13 12 10 10 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 39 42 41 42 33 21 -1 1 0 -4 0 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 9 -9 -17 -7 27 32 5 -14 1 27 39 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -2 -1 -2 -2 -4 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1140 1081 1023 973 932 871 883 984 1156 1344 1596 1865 2142 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.8 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.9 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 148.8 149.8 150.8 151.8 152.8 155.1 158.0 161.2 164.9 168.7 172.3 175.8 179.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 12 15 17 19 18 18 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 25 26 27 26 26 28 26 30 37 44 49 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 29. 31. 32. 33. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -4. -8. -10. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -0. -2. -3. -6. -6. -4. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 19. 14. 11. 4. -0. 0. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.0 148.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012025 IONA 07/28/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.57 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.74 6.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.22 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.74 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 30.9% 23.4% 17.7% 14.6% 25.2% 19.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.2% 47.6% 33.3% 18.9% 7.7% 5.0% 0.9% 3.0% Bayesian: 2.0% 10.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 12.3% 29.6% 19.1% 12.3% 7.6% 10.2% 6.7% 1.0% DTOPS: 19.0% 50.0% 41.0% 31.0% 15.0% 35.0% 9.0% 0.0% SDCON: 15.6% 39.8% 30.0% 21.6% 11.3% 22.6% 7.8% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012025 IONA 07/28/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##