* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IONA CP012025 07/28/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 49 53 59 59 57 53 51 45 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 49 53 59 59 57 53 51 45 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 48 54 55 51 45 39 34 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 7 6 2 3 11 20 23 22 24 24 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -1 5 6 9 4 2 1 1 4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 119 91 74 89 32 292 267 297 319 299 298 292 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.0 27.0 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.8 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 144 148 147 144 135 136 141 140 141 145 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 56 52 51 51 49 48 48 49 48 52 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 17 17 16 15 13 12 12 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 32 36 40 43 28 19 5 -2 -4 -6 -9 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 22 -8 -18 8 45 10 33 -2 -5 11 1 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 -4 -3 0 2 -5 -2 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1213 1157 1104 1038 977 898 876 935 1146 1296 1502 1755 2044 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.0 11.1 11.5 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.3 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.8 148.6 149.4 150.5 151.5 154.0 156.7 159.8 163.4 167.0 170.6 174.2 177.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 13 14 16 18 18 18 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 24 24 25 27 26 28 28 28 38 40 46 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 18. 24. 30. 34. 37. 40. 41. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -7. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 24. 24. 22. 18. 16. 10. 8. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.9 147.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012025 IONA 07/28/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.67 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.74 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.89 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 23.2% 17.5% 14.5% 11.9% 21.7% 16.2% 0.0% Logistic: 8.6% 37.6% 21.5% 10.5% 4.7% 4.7% 0.6% 3.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 7.0% 21.4% 13.0% 8.3% 5.6% 8.9% 5.7% 1.2% DTOPS: 5.0% 31.0% 20.0% 11.0% 7.0% 12.0% 15.0% 2.0% SDCON: 6.0% 26.2% 16.5% 9.6% 6.3% 10.4% 10.3% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012025 IONA 07/28/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##