* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE CP012025 07/27/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 44 51 53 53 50 48 43 42 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 44 51 53 53 50 48 43 42 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 44 43 39 34 29 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 9 9 3 8 13 21 21 24 27 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -4 -3 7 8 7 6 2 3 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 126 115 97 87 75 100 255 277 303 302 310 296 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 28.2 27.5 26.9 27.2 27.1 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 143 147 140 134 138 137 142 142 141 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 61 57 54 51 47 47 47 48 47 49 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 16 16 15 14 12 11 9 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 19 27 29 34 39 22 6 -14 -11 -8 -13 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 47 32 6 -11 23 8 10 -11 -31 14 15 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 -4 -4 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1259 1206 1156 1096 1039 892 815 844 997 1201 1401 1641 1888 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.8 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.0 147.7 148.4 149.3 150.2 152.5 155.2 158.1 161.4 165.0 168.9 172.5 175.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 10 12 14 15 17 19 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 23 23 24 25 23 22 26 26 32 39 45 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 25. 31. 36. 39. 42. 43. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -11. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -1. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 21. 23. 23. 20. 18. 13. 12. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 147.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012025 ONE 07/27/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.70 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.73 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.98 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 21.1% 15.8% 12.9% 0.0% 20.3% 16.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 15.1% 6.0% 2.5% 1.5% 1.1% 0.2% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 12.2% 7.3% 5.1% 0.5% 7.1% 5.5% 0.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 26.0% 15.0% 5.0% 3.0% 21.0% 9.0% 2.0% SDCON: 2.5% 19.1% 11.1% 5.0% 1.7% 14.0% 7.2% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012025 ONE 07/27/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##