* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE CP012025 07/27/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 53 56 55 53 50 46 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 53 56 55 53 50 46 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 40 45 48 47 43 38 33 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 9 11 4 4 9 16 19 26 21 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -1 -4 6 10 10 8 5 -1 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 126 131 116 114 104 126 276 273 289 304 316 303 295 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.4 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.1 27.4 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 146 146 143 143 139 131 136 141 138 140 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 64 60 57 52 51 50 48 46 46 47 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 16 16 14 13 12 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 23 24 38 45 47 39 28 4 -10 -5 -14 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 101 66 35 27 12 5 25 9 6 -6 0 18 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 -4 -2 -4 1 -6 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1318 1259 1202 1131 1064 929 840 807 871 1075 1253 1463 1684 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.6 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.2 147.0 147.7 148.5 149.3 151.3 153.7 156.5 159.5 163.0 166.9 170.3 173.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 9 11 13 14 16 18 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 22 23 23 23 24 21 23 25 25 36 39 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 24. 30. 35. 38. 41. 42. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -9. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 23. 26. 25. 23. 20. 16. 14. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 146.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012025 ONE 07/27/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.66 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.19 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 22.2% 16.9% 13.9% 0.0% 21.2% 17.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 15.1% 6.1% 2.7% 1.8% 1.1% 0.4% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 13.0% 7.8% 5.6% 0.6% 7.5% 6.0% 1.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 16.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% SDCON: 3.5% 14.5% 7.9% 4.3% .8% 6.7% 5.5% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012025 ONE 07/27/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##