* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902022 08/12/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 21 18 16 16 16 18 21 25 24 25 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 21 18 16 16 16 18 21 25 24 25 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 21 19 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 21 23 25 28 27 32 33 28 28 32 29 26 22 25 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 3 0 -3 -1 -2 1 2 0 -3 -2 -6 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 252 260 253 246 248 255 252 274 270 269 258 263 268 285 270 294 304 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 141 141 143 147 147 146 147 151 153 152 152 151 150 152 155 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -55.0 -55.2 -55.0 -54.9 -55.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 45 47 51 53 53 55 57 60 61 62 59 59 59 62 60 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -8 -6 -5 -1 -2 9 8 4 -7 -15 -25 -30 -26 -21 -33 -51 200 MB DIV 1 2 6 3 3 -29 -6 17 6 15 40 6 -10 7 3 15 4 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 0 -2 -5 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 1 -1 0 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 844 925 1027 1131 1233 1426 1588 1740 1862 1976 2071 2156 2221 2280 2332 2429 2559 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.7 16.7 16.6 16.4 16.1 16.1 16.4 17.1 17.6 18.2 18.9 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 166.0 167.2 168.4 169.5 170.5 172.4 174.1 175.8 177.3 178.6 179.7 180.7 181.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 24 32 28 19 24 34 27 24 29 38 56 60 44 29 31 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. 37. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -9. -16. -22. -25. -28. -29. -28. -29. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -7. -4. -0. -1. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.5 166.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902022 INVEST 08/12/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902022 INVEST 08/12/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##