* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902022 08/11/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 29 28 26 24 21 20 21 23 26 29 29 30 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 29 28 26 24 21 20 21 23 26 29 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 23 22 20 19 18 17 16 15 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 19 19 20 24 27 28 30 31 23 28 30 27 25 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 0 1 -3 -5 -2 -3 0 4 -1 -2 -1 -6 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 244 245 244 252 253 236 244 247 269 266 261 246 266 262 278 278 290 SST (C) 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 138 138 139 141 143 148 145 145 146 150 152 151 151 151 154 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -54.7 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 50 48 49 52 54 58 57 59 61 61 62 61 61 59 62 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -19 -14 -11 -12 6 6 18 13 11 -1 -5 -14 -22 -22 -21 -23 200 MB DIV -10 -5 2 9 12 15 -38 -15 16 24 35 21 7 -16 -2 5 9 700-850 TADV 3 5 -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 718 738 793 875 963 1146 1311 1455 1593 1700 1832 1949 2055 2156 2220 2297 2393 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.2 16.0 16.1 16.4 16.9 17.1 17.5 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 162.5 164.0 165.3 166.4 167.5 169.4 171.1 172.7 174.3 175.6 177.0 178.3 179.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 6 7 5 5 5 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 26 29 25 24 20 15 27 32 27 24 27 33 42 55 53 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 32. 33. 35. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -12. -18. -21. -22. -24. -23. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. -4. -2. 1. 4. 4. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 162.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902022 INVEST 08/11/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.06 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.56 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.7% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 3.2% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902022 INVEST 08/11/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##