* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902022 08/11/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 27 26 24 21 19 17 17 18 19 21 19 18 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 27 27 26 24 21 19 17 17 18 19 21 19 18 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 23 21 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 16 19 19 21 23 26 26 28 31 28 35 35 37 43 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -4 0 -1 -1 -5 0 -3 1 5 0 0 -2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 269 262 245 251 252 253 236 248 249 271 265 268 249 253 241 246 248 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 134 132 134 136 138 141 143 144 144 145 143 143 144 144 143 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.9 -54.7 -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 51 51 51 50 51 55 59 59 60 62 63 61 62 62 60 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -12 -20 -22 -14 -12 -1 1 14 8 10 -9 -7 -26 -42 -42 -38 200 MB DIV 3 -5 -15 -6 2 12 4 -42 -3 2 25 10 11 22 0 2 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 -3 0 -2 -2 -3 0 -2 0 -1 -4 1 0 -4 LAND (KM) 633 674 705 721 767 906 1066 1212 1318 1430 1524 1640 1720 1799 1865 1901 1932 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.2 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.1 16.0 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.4 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 159.5 160.8 162.1 163.3 164.5 166.6 168.4 170.0 171.3 172.7 173.9 175.2 176.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 5 13 28 24 19 16 16 24 28 30 26 23 25 26 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. 33. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -13. -17. -19. -21. -23. -25. -30. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -6. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 159.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902022 INVEST 08/11/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.28 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.48 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.5% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 3.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 1.9% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 4.8% 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902022 INVEST 08/11/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##