* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902022 08/11/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 26 24 22 20 18 17 17 19 20 19 19 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 26 24 22 20 18 17 17 19 20 19 19 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 10 12 15 16 20 28 25 28 27 34 33 36 32 37 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -4 -3 0 -1 -4 -1 0 2 3 0 -1 3 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 286 280 269 255 253 253 246 247 251 259 264 268 262 267 272 268 269 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 135 133 133 135 135 139 142 144 143 143 145 145 146 147 148 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 54 54 53 53 52 54 59 59 59 61 65 63 61 60 58 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -2 -6 -11 -14 -4 -3 2 3 7 3 -8 -25 -34 -46 -53 -56 200 MB DIV 25 5 2 -8 6 19 11 3 -15 2 12 13 10 -10 3 -18 -20 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 1 3 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 1 -4 0 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 650 663 711 778 781 876 1006 1138 1242 1334 1417 1478 1526 1550 1572 1572 1567 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.7 15.8 15.8 16.1 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 158.2 159.4 160.7 162.0 163.3 165.5 167.4 169.0 170.4 171.7 172.9 173.8 174.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 10 8 7 7 7 7 5 4 3 3 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 4 5 10 26 17 14 16 20 24 27 30 31 32 34 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -6. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 158.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902022 INVEST 08/11/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.53 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.40 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.9% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 1.6% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 4.6% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902022 INVEST 08/11/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##