* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902021 07/26/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 10 13 16 15 21 28 28 29 28 31 28 30 30 33 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 0 -1 0 -3 -1 -4 -3 -6 -6 -4 -1 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 37 154 196 227 236 221 198 196 205 206 206 215 217 224 237 244 248 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.9 26.9 26.4 26.3 26.0 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.5 27.0 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 133 134 128 127 124 118 122 126 130 136 139 143 147 148 152 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.6 -54.4 -55.0 -54.7 -55.0 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 9 9 11 10 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 62 59 66 61 63 56 53 50 48 47 41 39 38 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -17 -13 -16 -11 0 4 9 -4 -5 -16 -27 -42 -59 -65 -68 -63 200 MB DIV 22 11 6 4 8 31 36 61 22 22 -25 -26 11 8 -14 6 8 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 4 6 4 2 4 1 -3 -4 -4 1 10 11 LAND (KM) 1610 1479 1355 1241 1111 877 644 462 319 315 487 673 829 1051 1349 1678 2001 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.2 16.3 16.1 16.0 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 141.2 142.4 143.6 144.7 146.0 148.4 150.7 152.7 154.7 156.8 159.3 162.1 165.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 11 12 14 15 16 17 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 10 14 2 1 0 0 0 0 2 9 12 38 19 18 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 26. 26. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. -0. -5. -9. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -13. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 141.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902021 INVEST 07/26/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.57 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.3% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902021 INVEST 07/26/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##