* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902021 07/26/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 25 25 26 26 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 25 25 26 26 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 8 10 13 15 23 27 26 24 25 25 26 27 28 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -5 -2 0 0 -3 -6 0 -4 -3 -6 -2 -2 4 2 3 SHEAR DIR 346 42 141 185 218 217 203 187 194 196 198 202 214 206 233 253 271 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.2 26.3 25.8 25.7 25.9 26.4 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.5 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 134 134 134 126 127 121 120 123 129 132 136 138 142 149 151 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 63 62 63 63 62 61 63 61 60 56 53 51 49 47 43 40 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -15 -16 -14 -15 -7 1 8 10 -1 -6 -15 -32 -39 -32 -33 -23 200 MB DIV 38 15 15 7 0 10 26 49 48 25 0 -22 0 14 0 -12 -12 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 3 3 3 -1 -4 -4 -7 -2 1 LAND (KM) 1731 1596 1471 1348 1235 997 774 575 434 393 502 729 923 1150 1436 1775 2136 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.1 15.4 15.4 15.2 14.9 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.1 141.4 142.6 143.8 144.9 147.3 149.7 151.9 153.9 156.0 158.4 161.2 164.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 12 12 10 10 11 13 14 16 16 18 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 4 13 14 0 2 0 0 0 1 5 12 18 11 33 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. 26. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -6. -9. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 140.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902021 INVEST 07/26/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.79 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 9.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.0% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 3.6% 3.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902021 INVEST 07/26/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##