* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902020 08/21/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 27 31 36 39 41 42 44 47 50 52 53 52 52 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 27 31 36 39 41 42 44 47 50 52 53 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 24 24 25 24 23 22 22 22 22 21 21 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 9 10 9 8 15 18 18 18 20 16 19 18 19 18 21 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 0 -2 -4 2 6 3 4 2 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 355 317 326 306 283 290 298 295 298 299 301 306 315 319 320 338 N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 147 147 146 147 149 149 151 155 154 149 150 153 156 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 55 55 53 54 56 53 59 62 66 68 71 71 71 66 64 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 26 13 15 20 20 4 0 1 -12 -7 3 4 25 17 10 N/A 200 MB DIV 67 53 38 31 19 15 -9 -7 -11 -6 -3 5 4 44 58 35 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 -2 0 0 -1 0 0 1 3 3 3 N/A LAND (KM) 1995 2015 2043 2069 2096 2171 2257 2399 2558 2728 2917 2813 2656 2497 2345 2183 N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.0 13.8 13.5 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 176.1 176.6 177.1 177.5 177.9 178.8 179.8 181.3 183.0 184.7 186.5 188.1 189.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 4 6 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 42 42 43 44 47 44 31 28 35 31 26 22 27 57 92 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. 43. 46. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 24. 27. 30. 32. 33. 32. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.2 176.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902020 INVEST 08/21/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 13.6% 9.2% 5.3% 1.3% 1.6% 1.3% 13.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 7.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 1.7% 6.9% 3.5% 1.9% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 4.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902020 INVEST 08/21/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##