* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902020 08/21/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 42 50 56 59 60 60 61 61 63 63 63 63 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 42 50 56 59 60 60 61 61 63 63 63 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 25 26 28 31 34 37 38 37 36 35 33 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 11 6 7 8 1 11 11 11 12 17 17 19 18 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 1 6 9 3 -8 1 6 5 7 4 3 5 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 81 63 42 39 20 322 324 313 296 311 315 323 322 309 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 155 153 151 148 147 150 154 156 152 150 151 154 159 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 54 53 51 50 49 47 54 59 63 68 68 70 64 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 28 31 25 17 32 31 16 4 -7 -17 -14 -5 0 0 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 88 81 66 61 29 -1 -9 -7 -11 -2 2 21 50 24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 1 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2283 2357 2418 2472 2512 2557 2594 2677 2810 2969 2818 2654 2479 2313 2141 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.1 11.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 178.1 179.2 180.0 180.7 181.3 182.0 182.6 183.5 184.9 186.5 188.2 189.8 191.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 8 7 5 4 4 6 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 34 34 33 32 30 30 34 48 34 24 21 25 39 56 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. 39. 41. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 17. 25. 31. 34. 36. 35. 36. 36. 38. 38. 38. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 178.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902020 INVEST 08/21/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.55 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.58 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.31 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -5.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.0% 22.3% 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 19.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 14.8% 8.4% 4.2% 0.6% 3.8% 3.5% 17.9% Bayesian: 0.5% 5.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 1.1% 14.7% 11.1% 1.6% 0.2% 7.9% 7.7% 6.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902020 INVEST 08/21/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##