* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902020 08/20/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 22 23 28 38 45 49 53 53 55 57 59 60 59 60 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 22 23 28 38 45 49 53 53 55 57 59 60 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 20 17 16 15 15 16 17 18 20 21 21 21 21 20 19 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 17 15 9 11 6 8 9 9 10 16 17 18 17 19 16 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 3 4 3 -6 0 6 6 6 3 0 1 0 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 42 48 57 43 23 34 327 327 295 285 295 317 319 317 318 311 N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.2 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 155 154 151 148 148 151 155 156 151 149 150 152 156 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 55 53 51 48 48 46 49 53 59 63 70 68 68 62 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 9 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 18 25 27 13 8 33 24 10 -4 -20 -24 -12 -5 8 3 N/A 200 MB DIV 88 103 94 84 61 36 4 -10 -20 -18 -9 -5 0 20 39 43 N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 2 N/A LAND (KM) 2227 2327 2385 2436 2479 2519 2529 2571 2697 2849 2937 2770 2616 2473 2337 2194 N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.3 11.8 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.2 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 177.0 178.3 179.1 179.8 180.4 181.2 181.6 182.2 183.5 185.1 186.9 188.7 190.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 8 7 6 4 3 4 7 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 49 37 34 33 33 31 30 35 48 31 22 21 25 36 53 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 35. 38. 40. 43. 45. 47. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 3. 8. 18. 25. 29. 33. 33. 35. 37. 39. 40. 39. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.9 177.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902020 INVEST 08/20/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 17.3% 7.2% 3.6% 1.0% 2.9% 1.9% 13.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 6.0% 2.5% 1.2% 0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 4.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902020 INVEST 08/20/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##