* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902020 08/20/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 45 53 62 65 65 65 64 63 64 65 65 64 63 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 45 53 62 65 65 65 64 63 64 65 65 64 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 44 49 54 59 61 60 58 55 51 47 43 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 11 9 8 11 3 9 9 9 14 18 20 20 18 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 2 2 7 3 -5 -7 0 6 6 6 0 0 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 10 23 34 45 36 36 23 309 303 297 290 306 322 336 335 342 329 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 153 155 151 148 148 149 152 155 154 151 149 151 154 157 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 56 57 55 53 52 50 50 48 50 54 57 58 64 66 68 65 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 28 21 16 18 24 12 30 22 19 13 0 -11 -7 -12 4 7 -4 200 MB DIV 79 86 104 91 75 41 24 7 -10 -7 -18 -4 -1 5 19 30 27 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2098 2200 2267 2319 2372 2423 2452 2503 2599 2731 2894 2877 2705 2553 2418 2321 2188 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.8 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.5 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.5 12.2 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 175.3 176.6 177.7 178.5 179.3 180.3 180.9 181.6 182.7 184.1 185.7 187.6 189.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 8 7 5 3 5 6 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 52 54 40 34 34 32 30 30 40 45 26 21 22 29 42 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 31. 33. 34. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 23. 32. 35. 35. 35. 34. 33. 34. 35. 35. 34. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.7 175.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902020 INVEST 08/20/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.55 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.62 6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.41 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -5.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.7% 41.4% 30.3% 20.6% 0.0% 24.4% 26.3% 20.4% Logistic: 6.3% 27.7% 16.0% 10.3% 1.4% 7.4% 8.0% 28.8% Bayesian: 1.4% 12.3% 7.8% 3.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% Consensus: 8.1% 27.1% 18.0% 11.3% 0.5% 10.8% 11.6% 16.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902020 INVEST 08/20/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##