* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902020 08/20/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 44 53 60 64 65 64 64 63 65 66 67 68 65 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 44 53 60 64 65 64 64 63 65 66 67 68 65 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 42 47 53 58 61 62 61 60 57 54 51 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 9 3 6 8 10 10 13 14 15 13 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 8 6 5 6 -2 -5 0 4 5 7 5 3 2 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 321 342 15 20 39 22 33 287 299 291 293 281 295 317 331 338 324 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 152 153 154 152 149 148 149 151 153 153 155 155 155 155 154 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 52 55 55 54 52 51 48 46 45 48 52 56 59 65 65 68 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 26 30 32 27 25 13 19 23 12 2 -8 -15 -6 -1 7 14 4 200 MB DIV 75 114 103 109 92 40 34 5 0 -12 -29 -6 -5 5 37 55 46 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 0 -2 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1963 2062 2142 2219 2274 2378 2425 2477 2569 2702 2861 2902 2719 2544 2387 2271 2149 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.2 11.8 12.5 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.0 12.6 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 173.9 175.3 176.5 177.6 178.5 180.0 180.9 181.6 182.6 184.0 185.6 187.4 189.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 10 9 7 4 4 6 7 8 9 9 8 7 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 41 44 49 43 34 36 34 30 29 31 31 23 25 27 35 50 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 33. 35. 37. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 23. 30. 34. 35. 34. 34. 33. 35. 36. 37. 38. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.0 173.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902020 INVEST 08/20/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902020 INVEST 08/20/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##