* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902020 08/20/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 31 40 48 54 55 56 58 59 60 62 63 63 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 31 40 48 54 55 56 58 59 60 62 63 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 34 34 34 33 32 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 8 7 8 9 4 13 13 13 15 16 19 16 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 8 9 6 6 1 -1 -4 2 5 2 4 0 -1 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 322 309 314 338 337 8 22 278 294 293 291 289 290 296 310 302 313 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 153 152 153 154 152 149 150 149 151 152 153 154 155 154 154 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 54 54 56 55 54 53 50 50 47 49 55 60 62 66 68 70 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 26 23 22 22 26 21 25 33 12 4 -2 -7 -12 -3 1 20 23 200 MB DIV 40 66 92 102 99 71 45 41 17 -4 -11 -5 0 -17 16 46 48 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -2 0 -3 -1 2 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1824 1915 2005 2084 2152 2262 2333 2389 2443 2538 2679 2844 2865 2702 2576 2481 2371 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.6 11.0 11.7 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.1 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 172.1 173.4 174.7 175.9 177.0 178.7 180.0 180.9 181.7 182.8 184.3 185.9 187.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 10 8 6 5 5 6 8 8 8 8 7 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 47 40 42 46 44 34 40 35 31 27 28 26 24 25 27 29 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. 38. 40. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 15. 23. 29. 30. 31. 33. 34. 35. 37. 38. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 172.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902020 INVEST 08/20/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.63 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.58 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.21 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.40 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -5.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.60 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.1% 21.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.9% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.9% 1.6% 7.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 0.3% 8.9% 8.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 7.0% 2.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902020 INVEST 08/20/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##