* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902020 08/19/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 40 49 54 55 56 56 56 57 59 59 61 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 40 49 54 55 56 56 56 57 59 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 32 33 35 38 39 39 38 37 36 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 7 6 7 8 11 12 5 14 15 17 18 16 15 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 6 6 3 8 4 -1 -6 1 4 4 3 -1 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 242 331 341 357 344 327 336 13 290 301 297 303 305 306 299 294 316 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 149 151 152 154 152 151 150 150 151 152 153 154 154 154 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 52 53 54 55 56 54 52 50 48 47 50 52 57 60 67 70 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 35 35 28 22 23 24 25 32 39 24 12 -2 -10 -13 -1 1 19 200 MB DIV 40 32 51 73 95 96 66 58 46 14 2 -11 -7 -3 6 8 26 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -3 -3 -3 -1 -4 -1 2 1 0 -3 -2 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1646 1730 1816 1908 1981 2115 2244 2327 2385 2433 2519 2661 2832 2849 2695 2588 2524 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.9 11.4 12.2 12.9 13.7 14.2 14.4 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 169.4 170.8 172.1 173.4 174.5 176.5 178.3 179.7 180.7 181.6 182.7 184.2 185.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 6 6 8 9 8 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 45 49 45 40 41 46 34 38 36 31 27 27 25 25 25 27 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. 38. 40. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -2. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 16. 24. 29. 30. 31. 31. 31. 32. 34. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 169.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902020 INVEST 08/19/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 7.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.47 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.40 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -5.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.9% 26.3% 0.0% 0.0% 23.3% 22.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 10.6% 6.3% 2.8% 0.3% 2.1% 0.7% 4.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 13.0% 11.0% 1.0% 0.1% 8.4% 7.8% 1.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902020 INVEST 08/19/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##