* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902020 08/19/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 26 28 34 40 47 54 55 56 56 55 55 58 59 60 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 26 28 34 40 47 54 55 56 56 55 55 58 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 23 25 27 29 31 34 38 40 41 41 41 41 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 4 7 5 7 8 12 7 10 10 12 13 14 13 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 2 8 4 8 5 -2 -7 0 4 4 3 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 124 285 333 353 357 322 321 2 346 313 301 290 292 304 311 321 340 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 150 151 150 153 153 153 150 151 153 154 155 157 158 156 156 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 51 52 54 55 55 54 53 52 50 48 50 52 54 58 61 66 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 35 38 36 33 26 26 25 23 31 24 22 10 -7 -16 -21 1 14 200 MB DIV 64 58 46 62 82 77 73 34 46 30 4 -12 -29 -18 0 10 21 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -5 -4 -3 -2 -4 -1 0 0 -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 1558 1634 1729 1823 1908 2060 2202 2306 2353 2433 2521 2654 2843 2851 2632 2443 2294 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.9 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.4 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 168.1 169.5 170.9 172.2 173.5 175.7 177.7 179.3 180.2 181.2 182.3 183.7 185.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 12 10 9 8 5 5 6 8 10 11 10 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 40 45 49 47 41 46 37 35 38 33 31 33 32 28 29 33 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 37. 39. 41. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 3. 9. 15. 22. 29. 30. 31. 31. 30. 30. 33. 34. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 168.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902020 INVEST 08/19/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.85 6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.49 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.40 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -4.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.4% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 22.6% 22.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 18.8% 11.8% 6.3% 0.7% 3.0% 0.2% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 15.5% 10.9% 2.1% 0.2% 8.5% 7.4% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902020 INVEST 08/19/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##