* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902020 08/18/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 29 35 45 53 58 65 65 67 66 64 64 64 64 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 29 35 45 53 58 65 65 67 66 64 64 64 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 30 34 38 42 46 50 55 61 63 62 60 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 4 6 12 10 9 7 8 5 9 12 15 13 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 1 0 -1 0 1 9 -2 -6 -6 0 0 1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 90 84 88 56 359 14 9 353 344 30 328 299 289 290 299 303 307 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 152 153 153 153 153 154 154 152 154 154 156 158 158 158 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 52 53 53 55 55 57 56 56 56 51 49 51 52 52 54 59 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 4 5 4 4 3 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 34 35 42 43 42 32 20 18 20 22 32 25 18 -3 -14 -17 -13 200 MB DIV 71 70 72 65 45 60 81 83 70 40 38 2 -10 -4 -12 0 18 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -5 -6 -4 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 0 -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 1391 1491 1582 1678 1770 1949 2106 2239 2375 2451 2508 2604 2723 2904 2803 2580 2391 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.5 9.3 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.6 10.1 10.6 11.5 12.2 12.8 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 164.5 165.8 167.3 168.7 170.2 172.9 175.3 177.3 179.2 180.6 181.6 182.9 184.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 7 8 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 43 47 43 51 65 58 48 57 33 32 30 31 35 29 29 31 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 24. 28. 32. 34. 37. 39. 41. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -6. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 10. 20. 28. 33. 40. 40. 42. 41. 39. 39. 39. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 164.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902020 INVEST 08/18/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.50 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.11 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.45 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.85 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.6% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 18.0% 18.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 7.0% 3.3% 1.4% 0.2% 1.9% 1.5% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 10.0% 6.8% 0.5% 0.1% 6.6% 6.7% 1.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902020 INVEST 08/18/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##