* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902020 08/17/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 32 41 50 56 59 60 62 61 60 59 60 58 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 32 41 50 56 59 60 62 61 60 59 60 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 27 30 34 39 42 44 46 46 46 48 50 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 22 18 12 8 10 11 11 11 9 15 11 13 11 14 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 5 5 0 -6 0 0 2 0 4 -4 -6 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 85 84 83 78 48 41 24 24 13 330 327 327 318 307 305 295 289 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 152 155 157 158 156 152 151 150 149 147 148 151 153 152 151 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 53 53 54 54 56 56 56 58 58 56 52 50 49 47 44 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 17 25 37 36 37 36 32 25 18 14 10 18 29 17 0 -3 -10 200 MB DIV 65 85 68 71 41 12 1 50 36 42 68 50 30 12 -2 -4 -8 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -2 -2 -2 -4 -5 -3 -1 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1139 1239 1344 1458 1581 1746 1914 2057 2169 2258 2345 2424 2489 2561 2672 2830 2963 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 9.7 9.3 9.0 8.7 8.5 8.6 8.9 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.7 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 161.1 162.2 163.3 164.6 166.0 168.9 171.7 174.0 175.8 177.2 178.5 179.8 181.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 14 14 14 12 10 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 40 42 46 48 52 70 77 55 49 53 43 23 24 28 29 28 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 24. 29. 32. 34. 37. 39. 40. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -8. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 16. 25. 31. 34. 35. 37. 36. 35. 34. 35. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.1 161.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902020 INVEST 08/17/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.14 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.51 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.41 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -2.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.83 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.5% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 15.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 4.0% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 1.5% 1.1% 4.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.2% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% 5.2% 5.4% 1.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902020 INVEST 08/17/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##