* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902020 08/17/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 27 31 38 45 50 53 56 54 53 51 50 50 48 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 27 31 38 45 50 53 56 54 53 51 50 50 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 21 21 23 27 31 36 40 42 42 41 41 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 24 23 19 13 11 11 10 10 10 10 13 12 17 21 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 1 4 0 -5 -3 0 1 -1 0 0 -5 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 88 80 81 86 82 46 40 27 16 7 341 323 304 305 291 291 289 SST (C) 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 147 149 153 155 156 156 152 151 150 149 148 147 149 153 153 151 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 50 51 52 53 52 56 55 58 60 60 54 54 51 49 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 8 13 20 34 36 32 31 25 18 13 4 11 27 21 0 -3 -10 200 MB DIV 46 52 64 52 52 18 -3 2 38 31 44 50 30 4 -9 -19 -14 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -3 -2 -1 -2 -5 -3 -2 0 -1 -2 0 4 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1049 1139 1230 1342 1456 1646 1822 1980 2121 2227 2309 2388 2461 2505 2589 2703 2848 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.1 9.8 9.4 9.1 8.8 8.8 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.1 10.4 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 160.1 161.1 162.2 163.4 164.7 167.6 170.6 173.2 175.4 177.0 178.1 179.2 180.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 14 14 14 12 9 7 5 6 6 7 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 40 41 44 47 52 78 59 48 53 51 27 23 26 29 28 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. 38. 40. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -8. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 28. 31. 29. 28. 26. 25. 25. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 160.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902020 INVEST 08/17/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 15.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 6.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 5.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902020 INVEST 08/17/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##