* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902020 08/16/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 33 37 45 53 61 66 71 75 74 75 71 68 65 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 33 37 45 53 61 66 71 75 74 75 71 68 65 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 34 36 40 47 54 63 68 71 72 71 69 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 21 21 22 17 13 12 11 11 13 15 12 6 12 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 5 5 2 0 -3 -5 -7 -3 0 3 4 -5 -6 0 1 SHEAR DIR 68 89 98 93 87 83 63 71 40 60 58 48 30 356 314 304 301 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 141 142 145 151 154 155 153 152 150 149 148 147 146 149 152 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 53 51 51 50 50 53 58 57 59 54 53 53 50 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 9 7 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -1 9 8 13 30 20 26 28 30 26 6 -13 1 9 5 4 200 MB DIV 29 29 34 47 41 50 34 14 6 39 57 90 5 0 -17 -14 -18 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -4 -6 -2 -1 -3 -4 -3 -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 880 914 971 1035 1119 1339 1557 1744 1943 2104 2237 2332 2398 2434 2482 2568 2698 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.6 9.9 9.3 9.1 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 157.5 158.6 159.7 160.6 161.6 164.0 166.8 169.8 172.7 175.0 176.7 177.9 178.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 13 14 15 13 10 7 4 5 4 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 34 26 26 31 40 47 70 62 49 49 55 48 27 22 22 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 35. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. 8. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. -0. 1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 7. 15. 23. 31. 36. 41. 45. 44. 45. 41. 38. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.2 157.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902020 INVEST 08/16/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 4.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 4.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902020 INVEST 08/16/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##