* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902020 08/16/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 33 36 42 50 57 60 63 70 67 67 66 63 62 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 33 36 42 50 57 60 63 70 67 67 66 63 62 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 35 36 39 43 49 56 62 63 63 64 64 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 20 18 18 21 17 15 10 13 12 11 12 5 5 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 5 6 6 2 -4 -5 -7 -5 -1 4 5 0 -8 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 70 68 85 95 89 81 79 74 55 38 44 39 24 29 286 306 299 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 28.0 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 142 141 140 145 151 152 153 151 150 149 149 149 148 149 148 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 52 54 56 55 54 50 49 48 51 54 60 57 56 52 55 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 6 10 6 6 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR -9 1 4 15 13 17 28 27 27 29 23 18 1 -6 18 10 12 200 MB DIV 15 25 29 17 33 54 38 23 6 14 49 109 68 14 -21 -5 -18 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -1 -3 -4 -2 0 -4 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 839 869 900 941 1010 1169 1396 1568 1756 1933 2072 2186 2259 2329 2385 2460 2565 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.1 10.6 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 156.3 157.5 158.5 159.5 160.5 162.4 164.8 167.6 170.4 172.9 174.7 176.0 176.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 11 13 14 13 11 7 5 4 4 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 33 25 21 33 43 46 67 56 48 49 50 53 56 35 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 31. 33. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 13. 14. 13. 12. 10. 8. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 12. 20. 27. 30. 33. 40. 37. 37. 36. 33. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 156.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902020 INVEST 08/16/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.29 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.21 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -3.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.63 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.78 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 9.6% 9.2% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.3% 3.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902020 INVEST 08/16/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##