* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902020 08/16/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 36 44 52 58 62 63 64 65 65 64 62 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 36 44 52 58 62 63 64 65 65 64 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 33 37 43 48 52 56 60 61 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 16 15 20 18 14 10 11 15 8 12 11 5 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 1 6 7 5 0 -2 -4 -6 -3 0 2 0 -6 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 80 70 71 89 101 83 91 70 83 47 61 42 33 19 333 309 299 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 144 142 142 143 147 151 151 149 147 147 148 149 148 149 147 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -53.0 -52.6 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 51 52 54 54 53 49 48 48 50 52 55 56 59 58 55 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 7 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -9 -3 0 9 12 27 31 32 34 37 25 7 -8 2 4 -7 200 MB DIV 22 21 25 21 27 35 33 41 21 23 38 64 74 9 -12 -17 -10 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 0 -2 -5 -1 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 -2 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 795 793 817 844 893 1038 1249 1470 1628 1794 1924 2025 2115 2183 2253 2327 2427 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.1 10.3 9.7 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 155.0 156.1 157.1 158.1 159.1 161.0 163.2 165.8 168.5 171.1 173.0 174.4 175.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 13 13 12 8 6 5 4 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 26 31 26 24 35 42 52 67 47 37 36 36 37 32 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. 38. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 12. 11. 8. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 19. 27. 33. 37. 38. 39. 40. 40. 39. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 155.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902020 INVEST 08/16/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.27 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.29 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.73 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.83 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.4% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 10.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.6% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 2.9% 3.6% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902020 INVEST 08/16/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##