* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902020 08/16/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 32 37 43 52 58 61 63 69 66 66 64 61 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 32 37 43 52 58 61 63 69 66 66 64 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 33 36 41 47 54 57 59 61 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 14 18 13 12 11 15 13 11 9 10 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 1 6 7 0 0 0 -3 -4 -4 2 5 0 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 85 91 81 90 100 98 85 81 77 64 57 68 60 14 20 347 344 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.0 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 146 145 143 142 143 148 149 146 146 149 149 149 149 147 147 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 49 48 49 50 52 48 46 46 51 52 53 57 56 55 51 54 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 10 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -27 -20 -10 -5 3 6 16 29 30 36 43 43 8 2 19 8 200 MB DIV 12 6 16 17 31 43 18 38 43 37 18 36 108 72 18 3 -14 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 -1 0 -5 -7 0 -2 -4 -4 -1 -3 -4 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 750 715 703 709 732 851 1032 1283 1472 1682 1892 2075 2189 2276 2337 2353 2389 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.3 11.7 11.0 10.6 10.4 10.2 9.9 9.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 153.5 154.4 155.5 156.6 157.6 159.7 161.8 164.5 167.6 170.6 173.2 175.2 176.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 10 10 10 12 14 15 14 12 8 4 4 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 23 25 26 15 24 37 44 57 39 35 36 39 42 38 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 36. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 11. 9. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 1. -3. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 18. 27. 33. 36. 38. 44. 41. 41. 39. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 153.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902020 INVEST 08/16/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.48 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.26 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.55 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.5% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 3.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.6% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902020 INVEST 08/16/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##