* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902020 08/15/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 47 53 58 61 62 65 67 64 66 65 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 47 53 58 61 62 65 67 64 66 65 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 33 35 39 42 47 53 58 59 62 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 9 10 14 11 15 21 19 17 16 19 18 12 8 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -1 1 6 2 -2 -3 -3 -5 -3 -2 2 5 3 0 SHEAR DIR 84 92 78 68 69 103 79 84 73 82 61 67 78 88 80 85 112 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.1 27.8 28.3 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 146 146 144 143 143 148 147 144 150 152 149 151 152 153 153 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 53 55 54 50 49 51 55 56 58 60 60 62 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 5 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -16 -16 -6 -8 6 15 14 14 16 22 36 34 24 15 10 22 200 MB DIV 5 7 -1 16 28 37 55 35 26 26 -4 -1 16 29 30 5 -12 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -8 -5 -1 -5 -8 -5 -2 -3 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 743 692 680 691 710 825 1007 1217 1430 1683 1974 2247 2491 2702 2913 2833 2682 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.9 12.8 12.4 11.8 11.3 11.0 10.6 10.5 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 153.4 154.5 155.6 156.8 157.9 160.1 162.3 164.9 168.0 171.3 174.6 177.7 180.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 14 16 16 16 14 12 11 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 19 23 26 23 13 28 38 48 44 33 31 21 20 19 20 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 36. 38. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 15. 22. 28. 33. 36. 38. 40. 42. 39. 41. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 153.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902020 INVEST 08/15/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.52 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.23 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.89 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.94 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.5% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 6.8% 2.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 8.1% 4.1% 0.4% 0.1% 4.3% 4.9% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902020 INVEST 08/15/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##