* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902020 08/15/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 34 39 45 51 56 59 63 64 65 66 64 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 34 39 45 51 56 59 63 64 65 66 64 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 30 32 34 37 41 46 51 55 57 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 16 14 16 19 17 25 21 20 21 20 19 12 8 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 1 5 6 0 -2 -3 -5 -4 -2 1 6 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 76 72 76 79 77 88 86 76 84 69 69 64 65 76 38 55 88 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 145 147 146 142 144 145 150 148 147 151 151 150 150 149 149 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 59 59 58 57 54 56 58 59 59 64 62 63 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -8 -10 -16 -15 -2 4 6 17 22 21 35 35 36 36 27 44 200 MB DIV 20 11 11 7 11 19 32 42 28 26 -4 0 28 60 59 33 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 -2 -6 -5 -3 -2 -4 -1 0 LAND (KM) 934 894 866 849 850 875 991 1161 1376 1553 1786 2034 2260 2455 2627 2742 2797 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.5 11.3 11.0 10.5 10.3 10.1 9.9 9.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 152.0 153.0 154.0 155.1 156.3 158.4 160.5 162.8 165.5 168.5 171.7 174.7 177.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 10 11 12 15 15 15 14 11 9 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 28 23 21 23 23 33 22 33 41 49 55 36 38 38 27 19 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 9. 14. 20. 26. 31. 34. 38. 39. 40. 41. 39. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 152.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902020 INVEST 08/15/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.24 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.23 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.85 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 4.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 1.0% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.7% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 3.3% 3.9% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902020 INVEST 08/15/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##