* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902019 08/15/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 48 56 62 65 65 64 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 48 56 62 65 65 64 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 43 50 57 61 62 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 17 13 10 7 2 7 9 13 16 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -5 -5 -6 0 -1 -5 -4 -1 2 4 2 SHEAR DIR 63 78 84 100 97 111 80 36 9 22 25 36 28 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 30.1 30.1 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 156 158 158 160 162 162 162 167 167 159 159 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 66 63 57 57 58 58 57 59 59 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 65 69 67 61 43 36 38 17 5 -7 -19 -13 200 MB DIV 49 33 28 26 20 13 5 15 7 -32 -78 -118 -143 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -4 -2 -1 5 -3 1 0 3 0 4 0 LAND (KM) 1794 1823 1865 1929 2000 2213 4031 3776 3549 3351 3185 3061 2962 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.8 11.3 11.7 12.2 13.3 14.1 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 171.5 172.3 173.3 174.4 175.6 178.6 181.9 185.3 188.4 191.4 193.9 196.0 197.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 14 16 17 16 16 13 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 58 52 33 25 25 42 55 29 48 96 75 72 85 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 23. 31. 37. 40. 40. 39. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 171.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902019 INVEST 08/15/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.33 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.35 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.7% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.3% 18.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 10.8% 4.9% 2.1% 2.4% 1.8% 0.9% 23.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.9% 0.6% Consensus: 0.5% 10.5% 5.4% 0.7% 0.8% 6.1% 7.2% 8.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902019 INVEST 08/15/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##