* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902019 08/15/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 47 55 64 65 66 67 67 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 47 55 64 65 66 67 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 36 42 50 56 62 66 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 14 12 9 6 6 4 12 13 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -1 -4 -2 -1 -1 -4 0 0 4 0 SHEAR DIR 38 33 55 75 76 94 103 53 39 19 16 14 31 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.0 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.7 30.2 30.0 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 156 158 159 157 163 162 160 163 168 165 158 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 67 67 60 59 60 62 61 62 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 5 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 75 72 61 60 60 54 37 29 26 9 8 -3 2 200 MB DIV 86 49 27 15 23 11 16 2 18 12 -35 -84 -120 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -7 -4 -3 2 -1 -1 3 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1813 1871 1917 1962 2012 2177 4109 3871 3665 3467 3292 3126 2991 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.6 13.7 14.6 15.4 15.8 16.0 15.9 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 171.2 172.2 173.2 174.2 175.2 177.8 180.8 184.0 187.0 189.8 192.3 194.5 196.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 15 16 16 14 13 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 57 49 34 26 24 31 49 34 32 83 88 68 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 22. 30. 39. 40. 41. 42. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 171.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902019 INVEST 08/15/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902019 INVEST 08/15/19 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING