* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902019 08/15/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 35 38 49 57 62 66 69 67 68 68 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 35 38 49 57 62 66 69 67 68 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 47 56 64 71 77 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 14 14 15 13 11 6 6 4 11 14 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 1 0 -2 -2 1 -3 -2 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 93 67 55 44 52 75 78 95 60 61 15 7 15 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.3 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 158 159 158 158 160 162 164 164 159 159 160 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 67 66 68 63 60 61 62 59 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 10 9 8 9 7 6 6 6 4 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 55 62 69 63 57 55 48 25 18 0 -37 -48 -69 200 MB DIV 170 153 107 63 23 12 10 18 1 23 3 -4 -38 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -9 -11 -9 -3 3 1 2 4 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 1718 1769 1824 1881 1925 2003 2154 4150 3952 3798 3573 3357 3159 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.8 10.2 11.5 13.0 14.4 15.7 16.9 17.9 18.5 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 169.3 170.2 171.0 172.0 173.0 175.1 177.8 180.8 183.9 186.7 189.3 191.4 193.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 11 14 16 17 16 13 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 64 64 64 60 42 23 40 55 47 52 41 53 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 24. 32. 37. 41. 44. 42. 43. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 169.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902019 INVEST 08/15/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.44 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.72 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.54 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 39.4% 26.8% 0.0% 0.0% 22.5% 22.2% 0.0% Logistic: 14.2% 45.3% 29.1% 19.1% 6.3% 8.8% 7.3% 50.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 5.7% 4.3% 1.6% 0.1% 2.1% 3.1% 2.6% Consensus: 5.0% 30.1% 20.1% 6.9% 2.2% 11.1% 10.9% 17.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902019 INVEST 08/15/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##