* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992026 09/19/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 42 43 41 39 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 42 43 41 39 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 36 36 35 36 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 24 24 24 23 24 26 26 12 13 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -9 -8 -7 -4 -2 -2 -1 -6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 279 289 302 314 311 313 330 339 5 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 123 122 121 118 119 123 127 129 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -57.1 -56.9 -57.0 -57.0 -57.0 -56.8 -56.3 -56.3 -56.1 -56.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.3 -0.5 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 41 44 45 47 53 51 45 41 38 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -81 -93 -106 -60 -23 -24 -41 -48 -61 -62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -28 -15 -19 3 8 19 -12 -54 -28 -21 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 5 4 0 -2 -8 -8 -4 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1981 1980 1980 1979 1979 1939 1892 1873 1941 2038 2175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 3 2 4 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 10 10 10 7 4 4 6 8 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 13. 11. 9. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.5 33.6 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992026 INVEST 09/19/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.59 1.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.24 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.4 30.0 to 152.9 0.32 0.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -16.1 -4.5 to -89.2 0.14 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.14 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 9.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 3.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.2% 3.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.6% 3.1% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992026 INVEST 09/19/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 38 42 43 41 39 39 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 39 40 38 36 36 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 35 33 31 31 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 27 25 23 23 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT