* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992026 09/19/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 40 43 44 44 41 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 40 43 44 44 41 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 38 39 41 41 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 21 29 25 24 21 23 27 14 13 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -9 -10 -7 -5 -1 -6 2 -8 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 276 279 291 299 309 304 300 330 347 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 122 122 123 119 117 119 123 127 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -56.8 -56.8 -56.8 -56.8 -57.1 -57.1 -56.5 -56.5 -56.2 -56.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.8 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 39 41 42 46 52 54 50 43 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -67 -68 -80 -94 -104 -30 -19 -20 -47 -46 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -19 -27 -8 -16 -8 45 -16 -34 -54 -22 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 2 4 3 0 -4 -3 -6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1984 1979 1974 1979 1985 1978 1935 1881 1930 1998 2058 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 1 2 2 2 4 6 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 10 9 9 9 6 4 4 8 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 8. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. 14. 11. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.6 33.6 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992026 INVEST 09/19/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.58 1.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 226.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.69 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.6 30.0 to 152.9 0.32 0.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -14.3 -4.5 to -89.2 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.10 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 10.8% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 5.4% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 2.0% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.4% 3.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.8% 3.7% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992026 INVEST 09/19/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 38 40 43 44 44 41 40 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 36 39 40 40 37 36 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 33 34 34 31 30 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 26 26 23 22 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT