* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992026 09/19/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 39 42 44 45 42 39 40 39 40 40 39 36 35 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 39 42 44 45 42 39 40 39 40 40 39 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 35 37 39 40 40 40 40 41 42 44 45 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 15 20 26 22 24 21 28 34 14 15 11 10 11 26 41 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -9 -8 -6 -3 -5 -3 0 -6 -1 -6 0 9 9 9 SHEAR DIR 279 286 287 294 304 329 319 293 321 344 23 53 350 326 236 211 215 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.0 26.0 25.8 26.3 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.0 26.2 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 121 122 120 116 111 110 109 115 122 122 119 124 115 116 105 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -57.0 -56.5 -56.5 -56.5 -56.7 -56.9 -56.7 -56.8 -56.7 -56.5 -56.5 -57.0 -57.6 -56.9 -56.9 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 4 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 35 37 37 38 39 42 47 42 35 34 34 38 42 45 39 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -71 -75 -88 -101 -52 -17 -30 -50 -82 -94 -64 -3 43 57 81 43 200 MB DIV -22 -43 -26 -1 -14 32 24 -16 -82 -35 -3 -5 -12 50 37 14 -122 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 3 2 4 1 -1 -7 -12 -8 -2 0 -3 -18 -11 19 LAND (KM) 2038 2024 2010 2009 2003 2012 1991 1932 1914 1945 2051 2087 2074 2095 1868 1687 1560 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 33.5 33.6 33.8 34.1 34.9 35.8 35.9 35.4 34.7 34.2 33.9 33.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.9 33.7 33.5 33.4 33.2 32.9 32.1 31.3 31.4 32.2 33.7 35.0 35.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 2 4 6 7 4 1 9 14 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 10 8 5 2 1 0 0 2 6 4 4 6 0 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 12. 14. 15. 12. 9. 10. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.4 33.9 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992026 INVEST 09/19/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.61 2.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.67 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.4 30.0 to 152.9 0.31 0.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -29.2 -4.5 to -89.2 0.29 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.04 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.04 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 12.5% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 8.9% 5.7% 3.2% 1.1% 5.0% 1.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 7.2% 4.9% 1.1% 0.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 4.1% 2.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992026 INVEST 09/19/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 38 39 42 44 45 42 39 40 39 40 40 39 36 35 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 35 38 40 41 38 35 36 35 36 36 35 32 31 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 33 35 36 33 30 31 30 31 31 30 27 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 26 27 24 21 22 21 22 22 21 18 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT