* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992026 09/18/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 35 37 41 43 44 42 40 38 39 42 43 45 45 44 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 35 37 41 43 44 42 40 38 39 42 43 45 45 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 33 35 36 36 37 37 37 38 41 45 48 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 20 20 26 23 28 28 24 31 19 11 8 9 5 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -3 -5 -6 -8 -6 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 -6 -2 1 6 6 SHEAR DIR 255 266 285 277 281 301 316 324 304 306 315 333 311 243 243 225 245 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.1 26.0 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.9 27.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 124 123 121 120 118 112 111 115 119 123 126 128 131 130 127 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.6 -56.6 -56.7 -56.2 -56.2 -56.4 -56.8 -56.6 -56.2 -56.3 -56.2 -55.9 -56.0 -56.5 -57.1 -57.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 38 38 37 39 38 38 41 47 45 38 34 32 33 34 38 45 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -40 -48 -64 -67 -89 -72 -20 -18 -30 -29 -43 -51 -46 -9 4 25 200 MB DIV -3 -20 -25 -29 -36 -15 18 21 20 -37 -53 -30 -12 9 -15 19 53 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 1 3 1 -1 -10 -9 -6 -4 -3 -1 -6 -8 LAND (KM) 2051 2049 2022 1987 1972 1949 1943 1906 1805 1720 1680 1726 1802 1916 2000 1969 1861 LAT (DEG N) 33.0 33.2 33.2 33.2 33.3 33.6 34.1 34.6 34.4 33.5 32.1 30.7 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.2 34.1 33.8 33.4 33.2 32.8 32.5 31.8 30.7 30.2 30.4 31.4 32.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 2 2 4 4 4 6 8 9 9 6 2 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 10 9 7 4 1 0 1 4 7 11 14 16 14 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 2. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 16. 18. 19. 17. 15. 14. 14. 17. 18. 20. 20. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 33.0 34.2 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992026 INVEST 09/18/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.56 1.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.5 30.0 to 152.9 0.36 0.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -33.2 -4.5 to -89.2 0.34 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 12.8% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 8.0% 4.3% 2.1% 0.8% 8.2% 5.7% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 7.0% 4.5% 0.7% 0.3% 2.7% 1.9% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992026 INVEST 09/18/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 32 35 37 41 43 44 42 40 38 39 42 43 45 45 44 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 32 36 38 39 37 35 33 34 37 38 40 40 39 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 30 32 33 31 29 27 28 31 32 34 34 33 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 23 24 22 20 18 19 22 23 25 25 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT