* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972026 08/30/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 20 21 23 29 33 38 40 41 41 42 40 39 37 39 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 20 21 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 16 15 4 6 7 5 1 10 7 26 18 19 15 15 28 18 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 5 -2 -4 7 0 4 -1 -3 -3 2 -2 10 0 3 1 SHEAR DIR 232 252 294 201 246 4 314 22 329 22 360 28 285 297 294 330 310 SST (C) 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.9 31.0 31.0 30.7 29.1 27.5 26.7 26.0 25.4 24.9 24.5 24.2 24.1 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 170 170 170 171 170 153 129 119 112 107 102 98 95 93 96 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -52.9 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -52.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 11 11 8 12 8 11 7 9 5 8 3 9 2 9 700-500 MB RH 49 47 49 49 50 47 49 46 49 47 53 50 55 55 56 55 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -62 -68 -57 -66 -99 -73 -72 -42 -30 -35 -29 -31 -28 -28 -47 -27 200 MB DIV -11 -35 -25 -2 -23 -21 -50 -12 -28 -31 -23 6 -19 -4 -5 -30 -7 700-850 TADV 0 4 2 3 0 -6 0 -16 2 -37 12 -51 5 -22 0 -5 0 LAND (KM) 148 119 83 70 43 49 -19 -161 -344 -474 -622 -744 -851 -930 -984 -999 -947 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.9 30.6 31.9 32.7 33.9 35.0 36.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.9 88.4 89.1 89.8 90.5 92.3 93.8 95.5 96.7 97.8 98.5 98.9 99.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 2 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 49 53 34 21 10 9 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -1. 3. 9. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. 8. 6. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 9. 13. 18. 20. 21. 21. 23. 20. 19. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 28.3 87.9 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972026 INVEST 08/30/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.75 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 30.0 to 152.9 0.88 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -14.7 -4.5 to -89.2 0.12 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.05 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 23.8% 20.5% 14.5% 4.8% 12.7% 12.4% 6.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 8.1% 6.9% 4.8% 1.6% 4.2% 4.1% 2.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 4.0% 3.4% 2.4% 0.8% 2.1% 2.0% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972026 INVEST 08/30/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972026 INVEST 08/30/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 19 20 21 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 28 18HR AGO 20 19 18 19 20 22 24 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 27 27 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 20 22 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 25 25 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT