* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962026 08/25/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 29 34 47 58 69 73 76 75 75 73 76 75 76 80 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 29 34 47 58 69 73 76 75 75 73 76 75 76 80 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 25 30 36 41 44 46 45 43 42 42 44 46 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 13 11 10 6 0 6 11 10 18 14 10 11 15 23 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 2 4 6 7 9 4 4 10 8 8 6 3 2 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 16 3 11 3 21 35 245 252 253 243 258 273 260 261 257 262 261 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.5 28.3 27.7 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.5 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 153 154 155 146 144 136 131 131 133 133 133 135 136 146 154 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 71 74 73 71 70 69 66 62 56 52 48 52 57 60 65 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 14 16 22 24 27 26 26 24 25 23 26 24 27 31 850 MB ENV VOR 36 43 55 60 63 82 93 92 84 64 46 24 7 6 11 21 16 200 MB DIV 26 8 4 21 24 51 3 2 40 36 40 8 19 29 35 34 53 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -5 -9 -8 -5 -8 -6 4 0 3 6 6 6 9 13 12 LAND (KM) 307 403 523 658 773 1068 1449 1894 1724 1450 1266 1197 1270 1332 1439 1577 1727 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.7 13.4 13.9 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.5 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.3 20.3 21.5 22.8 24.1 27.2 30.9 35.1 39.2 42.7 45.4 47.0 47.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 12 13 14 17 20 20 18 16 10 7 7 9 12 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 16 13 14 15 16 12 12 16 23 28 30 30 33 32 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 30. 37. 42. 47. 49. 51. 52. 54. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 14. 19. 19. 19. 16. 15. 12. 14. 11. 13. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 9. 14. 27. 38. 49. 53. 56. 55. 55. 53. 56. 55. 56. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.2 19.3 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962026 INVEST 08/25/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.54 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 30.0 to 152.9 0.82 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -21.0 -4.5 to -89.2 0.19 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 8.9% 4.8% 1.6% 0.7% 2.5% 4.7% 3.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.7% Consensus: 1.1% 4.5% 1.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.9% 1.9% 1.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% SDCON: 1.0% 4.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 1.4% 2.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962026 INVEST 08/25/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 24 29 34 47 58 69 73 76 75 75 73 76 75 76 80 18HR AGO 20 19 22 27 32 45 56 67 71 74 73 73 71 74 73 74 78 12HR AGO 20 17 16 21 26 39 50 61 65 68 67 67 65 68 67 68 72 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT