* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962026 08/24/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 30 35 45 58 65 72 75 73 72 69 70 70 71 73 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 30 35 45 58 65 72 75 73 72 69 70 70 71 73 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 29 34 38 42 43 42 40 37 36 37 39 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 6 11 16 12 17 3 10 7 14 18 22 12 11 12 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 10 7 2 6 6 4 0 3 5 6 6 10 7 4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 33 24 11 13 10 23 81 236 228 251 246 270 281 287 280 260 262 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.6 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 147 151 153 153 148 135 132 129 129 132 133 134 136 140 149 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.9 -51.7 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 73 74 74 73 72 69 67 61 57 50 52 51 57 59 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 11 14 17 20 24 24 26 27 24 24 22 22 22 23 26 850 MB ENV VOR 35 35 42 59 64 65 81 82 77 62 38 33 15 10 10 18 11 200 MB DIV 30 47 30 13 4 37 6 -17 -1 10 17 4 24 26 24 31 32 700-850 TADV -1 2 0 -4 -6 -9 -4 -3 0 1 4 7 7 7 6 10 12 LAND (KM) 248 328 431 549 672 910 1210 1573 1956 1718 1507 1372 1325 1278 1287 1347 1358 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.5 12.1 13.0 13.7 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.4 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.5 19.4 20.5 21.7 22.9 25.5 28.6 32.1 36.0 39.8 43.0 45.5 47.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 12 14 17 19 19 17 14 10 7 7 8 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 14 16 14 12 12 16 12 9 12 15 25 30 28 33 35 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 30. 37. 42. 47. 49. 51. 52. 54. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 16. 20. 21. 17. 15. 11. 10. 9. 9. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 25. 38. 45. 52. 55. 53. 52. 49. 50. 50. 51. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.0 18.5 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962026 INVEST 08/24/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.51 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 30.0 to 152.9 0.80 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -31.4 -4.5 to -89.2 0.32 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 15.0% 7.3% 2.7% 2.0% 4.4% 6.5% 11.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 5.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 2.7% Consensus: 1.4% 6.7% 2.7% 0.9% 0.7% 1.5% 2.3% 4.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962026 INVEST 08/24/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 30 35 45 58 65 72 75 73 72 69 70 70 71 73 18HR AGO 20 19 22 27 32 42 55 62 69 72 70 69 66 67 67 68 70 12HR AGO 20 17 16 21 26 36 49 56 63 66 64 63 60 61 61 62 64 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT