* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942026 08/13/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 41 45 50 49 55 61 63 63 61 57 57 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 41 45 50 49 55 61 63 63 61 57 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 31 33 37 41 45 47 46 45 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 22 22 25 23 23 19 12 11 7 11 15 18 25 26 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 0 -2 -5 -2 0 0 0 -3 0 5 5 4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 68 73 78 83 90 75 56 47 31 20 337 299 268 251 256 255 254 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.1 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 143 139 140 140 141 144 139 130 127 128 128 128 130 137 140 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 6 6 7 6 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 71 70 72 75 70 69 58 56 48 48 47 47 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 12 13 14 15 16 16 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 51 51 50 44 42 48 53 54 47 28 10 -16 -21 -31 -20 -17 -1 200 MB DIV 23 -3 -22 -17 -26 -12 9 12 -2 -5 4 27 33 7 -17 5 0 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -7 -6 -4 -3 -4 -4 -7 -4 0 -5 0 2 -2 -4 -8 LAND (KM) 1084 1233 1352 1486 1610 1501 1425 1456 1512 1410 1391 1408 1366 1221 1086 918 744 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.2 10.0 9.7 9.4 9.0 9.2 10.0 11.0 12.5 14.2 15.8 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.5 27.9 29.0 30.2 31.3 33.5 35.6 37.4 39.4 41.6 43.7 45.5 47.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 12 10 10 11 12 13 13 11 10 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 14 14 14 16 16 25 17 15 17 20 22 22 26 35 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 14. 22. 29. 37. 42. 46. 47. 48. 49. 52. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -12. -16. -18. -19. -18. -20. -22. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 16. 20. 25. 24. 30. 36. 38. 39. 36. 32. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 26.5 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942026 INVEST 08/13/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.45 1.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 30.0 to 152.9 0.69 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -8.2 -4.5 to -89.2 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 11.3% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 5.9% 3.8% 1.2% 0.7% 1.8% 1.8% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 6.2% 4.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 3.0% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0.6% 4.1% 2.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 1.5% 1.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942026 INVEST 08/13/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 34 41 45 50 49 55 61 63 63 61 57 57 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 32 39 43 48 47 53 59 61 61 59 55 55 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 28 35 39 44 43 49 55 57 57 55 51 51 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 28 32 37 36 42 48 50 50 48 44 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT