* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942026 08/13/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 34 38 43 46 48 52 60 62 65 63 62 63 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 34 38 43 46 48 52 60 62 65 63 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 29 30 31 33 37 42 45 46 49 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 21 24 25 23 27 21 23 17 14 8 11 11 11 12 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -1 0 -6 -3 0 0 0 -1 -3 1 4 4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 67 70 72 78 84 97 76 44 38 33 3 314 294 291 264 267 264 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 139 140 140 140 139 139 143 136 131 125 126 127 127 128 132 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 72 70 70 73 71 69 63 58 55 47 45 43 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 14 14 13 14 16 15 15 13 14 12 12 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 55 52 52 49 47 41 57 62 61 43 19 0 -13 -15 -16 0 16 200 MB DIV 11 18 -1 -18 -27 -17 -7 -2 27 11 8 0 23 1 4 -28 -13 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -6 -7 -6 -3 -3 -4 -5 -7 -1 -2 -5 2 2 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 905 1045 1177 1299 1414 1613 1486 1457 1531 1625 1563 1538 1534 1478 1340 1188 1019 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.2 10.0 9.8 9.5 9.1 8.9 9.4 10.6 12.0 13.7 15.2 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.8 26.1 27.3 28.4 29.4 31.6 33.6 35.3 37.0 38.8 40.8 42.8 44.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 11 11 9 9 11 12 13 12 10 9 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 8 11 15 14 16 17 22 16 19 13 19 20 19 22 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 22. 29. 37. 42. 46. 47. 49. 49. 52. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -9. -14. -19. -22. -21. -21. -21. -21. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -3. -2. -6. -6. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 35. 37. 40. 38. 37. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 24.8 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942026 INVEST 08/13/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.46 1.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 30.0 to 152.9 0.69 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -9.2 -4.5 to -89.2 0.06 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 12.2% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 7.1% 4.3% 1.4% 0.9% 2.0% 1.3% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 7.0% 4.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 2.9% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942026 INVEST 08/13/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 29 31 34 38 43 46 48 52 60 62 65 63 62 63 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 33 37 42 45 47 51 59 61 64 62 61 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 28 32 37 40 42 46 54 56 59 57 56 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 24 29 32 34 38 46 48 51 49 48 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT