* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942026 08/12/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 40 45 51 55 57 57 62 68 70 69 69 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 40 45 51 55 57 57 62 68 70 69 69 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 35 36 37 38 40 42 46 50 54 57 58 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 20 24 24 28 25 22 19 15 9 5 11 12 10 19 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -3 -1 -5 -6 -1 2 0 0 -2 0 4 5 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 68 67 69 72 77 93 87 60 39 39 22 324 301 283 264 260 N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 138 138 138 136 139 141 142 139 136 125 126 126 128 129 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 71 72 70 72 72 71 74 69 69 57 59 49 46 43 43 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 13 14 14 14 16 16 16 14 12 13 12 11 10 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 55 53 54 51 41 50 64 65 54 31 9 -9 -13 -18 -8 N/A 200 MB DIV 31 11 19 0 -20 -30 -24 -10 5 31 5 2 15 24 14 -36 N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -3 -6 -7 -4 -3 -3 -3 -7 -4 -1 -3 0 1 -1 N/A LAND (KM) 755 905 1024 1146 1257 1504 1575 1495 1519 1615 1604 1565 1554 1527 1403 1269 N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.0 9.8 9.3 9.1 9.3 10.2 11.5 13.1 14.7 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 23.4 24.8 25.9 27.0 28.0 30.2 32.3 34.2 35.9 37.7 39.8 41.8 43.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 10 12 13 12 11 9 7 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 8 9 8 9 11 12 15 20 19 20 12 12 19 21 22 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 22. 29. 37. 42. 46. 48. 49. 50. 52. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -8. -12. -18. -21. -20. -20. -20. -20. -23. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 2. -2. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 20. 26. 30. 32. 32. 37. 43. 45. 44. 44. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 23.4 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942026 INVEST 08/12/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.50 1.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 30.0 to 152.9 0.68 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -31.5 -4.5 to -89.2 0.32 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.17 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 14.6% 9.9% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 14.5% 8.9% 2.4% 1.6% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 2.2% 11.3% 6.4% 3.9% 0.5% 1.2% 4.1% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942026 INVEST 08/12/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 37 40 45 51 55 57 57 62 68 70 69 69 DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 36 41 47 51 53 53 58 64 66 65 65 DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 30 35 41 45 47 47 52 58 60 59 59 DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 21 26 32 36 38 38 43 49 51 50 50 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT