* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932026 08/12/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 38 37 37 35 32 32 31 31 29 28 29 33 34 39 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 38 37 37 35 32 32 31 31 29 28 29 33 34 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 37 37 37 35 33 32 32 31 31 31 31 31 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 24 24 20 16 14 11 11 17 15 10 1 12 9 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -5 -6 -6 -1 -6 -2 -2 -2 1 4 2 0 -2 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 318 338 353 10 21 24 41 95 136 173 179 186 341 269 244 337 37 SST (C) 25.5 25.2 24.8 24.4 24.6 23.9 23.6 23.5 23.9 24.5 25.0 24.4 24.3 23.3 23.3 23.2 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 113 110 106 102 102 97 94 92 95 99 104 100 99 92 91 90 92 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.6 -55.3 -55.1 -55.0 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.9 -55.2 -56.3 -56.1 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 3 4 5 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 56 56 57 58 55 54 54 50 47 43 41 39 42 37 37 36 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -37 -42 -68 -69 -81 -111 -121 -148 -147 -161 -175 -134 -118 -140 -131 -125 200 MB DIV -2 2 -24 -48 -23 -15 -25 -27 -27 -22 -27 -10 -1 -23 2 -41 -7 700-850 TADV 9 12 12 16 14 11 8 3 0 -3 0 -5 -2 -1 -2 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1333 1462 1566 1654 1736 1843 1903 1768 1747 1812 1954 1992 1822 1800 1878 1836 1840 LAT (DEG N) 36.8 36.8 37.0 37.3 37.5 38.3 38.6 38.3 37.5 36.6 36.0 36.4 37.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.9 41.4 39.3 37.5 36.0 33.6 31.4 29.8 29.4 29.9 31.5 33.4 34.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 18 16 13 11 10 7 5 5 6 8 8 9 7 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 22 CX,CY: 22/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 9. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -6. -2. -1. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 36.8 43.9 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932026 INVEST 08/12/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.59 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.32 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.67 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.3 30.0 to 152.9 0.23 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 5.2 -4.5 to -89.2 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.05 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 1.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932026 INVEST 08/12/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932026 INVEST 08/12/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 38 37 37 35 32 32 31 31 29 28 29 33 34 39 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 34 34 32 29 29 28 28 26 25 26 30 31 36 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 30 28 25 25 24 24 22 21 22 26 27 32 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 24 22 19 19 18 18 16 15 16 20 21 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT