* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932026 08/12/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 38 38 36 37 34 33 31 31 29 29 30 32 33 37 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 38 38 36 37 34 33 31 31 29 29 30 32 33 37 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 37 37 36 34 32 31 31 31 31 31 32 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 18 24 24 15 15 12 9 13 13 15 0 5 14 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -6 -7 -2 -4 -4 -1 -6 -1 -1 1 -2 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 303 312 332 347 359 14 23 58 122 158 179 179 144 357 339 348 16 SST (C) 25.8 25.3 24.9 24.6 24.3 24.1 23.4 23.2 23.3 23.9 24.6 24.9 24.3 24.2 23.9 23.4 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 117 111 107 104 101 99 94 92 91 95 101 103 98 97 94 90 89 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.6 -55.6 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.9 -55.4 -56.0 -55.9 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 58 57 55 55 52 50 46 43 39 40 46 47 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 3 2 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -24 -36 -44 -67 -70 -97 -117 -138 -139 -154 -168 -135 -103 -113 -116 -131 200 MB DIV 8 -1 9 -22 -42 -11 -14 -17 -28 -26 -24 -31 -20 13 2 -23 -14 700-850 TADV 23 9 10 13 16 11 13 9 0 -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1199 1315 1432 1525 1621 1759 1893 1765 1652 1669 1783 1959 1984 1857 1808 1804 1805 LAT (DEG N) 37.0 37.1 37.2 37.5 37.8 38.5 39.3 39.3 38.5 37.5 36.4 36.1 36.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.6 43.7 41.3 39.3 37.4 34.6 32.0 29.9 28.5 28.5 29.5 31.5 33.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 24 21 18 16 14 11 10 7 6 6 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 25 CX,CY: 25/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 2. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 37.0 46.6 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932026 INVEST 08/12/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.61 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.32 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.7 30.0 to 152.9 0.25 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 4.0 -4.5 to -89.2 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.09 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.59 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932026 INVEST 08/12/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932026 INVEST 08/12/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 38 38 36 37 34 33 31 31 29 29 30 32 33 37 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 35 33 34 31 30 28 28 26 26 27 29 30 34 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 29 30 27 26 24 24 22 22 23 25 26 30 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 23 24 21 20 18 18 16 16 17 19 20 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT