* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932026 08/12/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 36 37 36 33 37 36 35 39 45 44 40 50 63 64 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 36 37 36 33 37 36 35 39 45 44 40 50 63 64 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 34 33 33 31 30 32 34 35 34 39 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 15 17 23 19 19 11 5 6 9 10 12 8 4 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -3 -5 -4 -2 -2 0 -3 -4 -4 -1 -1 1 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 283 300 314 330 335 2 350 9 47 150 183 179 173 166 33 65 32 SST (C) 26.1 25.7 25.2 25.0 24.5 24.1 23.1 23.1 22.9 23.1 23.8 25.0 24.9 25.2 24.6 24.9 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 119 115 110 108 103 99 93 93 91 91 96 105 104 106 100 102 100 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.5 -55.7 -55.6 -55.3 -55.2 -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 -55.4 -55.2 -55.3 -54.9 -55.2 -55.7 -56.0 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 53 57 59 58 59 59 57 57 55 52 45 40 39 39 40 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 3 2 5 5 4 6 11 11 7 13 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -32 -24 -34 -44 -73 -82 -103 -121 -130 -143 -150 -157 -153 -143 -145 -136 200 MB DIV 14 7 3 14 -12 -26 -16 -13 -33 -9 -33 -15 -32 -1 -31 -23 -16 700-850 TADV -3 25 12 10 13 15 19 8 3 -2 -7 -4 2 -2 1 -2 4 LAND (KM) 1108 1185 1295 1401 1485 1649 1774 1772 1562 1456 1497 1678 1869 2047 1927 1789 1661 LAT (DEG N) 37.0 37.1 37.1 37.3 37.7 38.5 39.7 40.3 40.2 39.0 37.4 36.1 35.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.7 46.7 44.1 41.7 39.7 36.2 33.3 30.3 27.7 26.3 26.5 28.2 30.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 24 22 20 18 16 13 13 11 9 7 9 10 10 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 24 CX,CY: 24/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -4. -5. -7. -5. 1. -1. -6. 1. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 7. 6. 5. 9. 15. 14. 10. 21. 33. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 37.0 49.7 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932026 INVEST 08/12/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.63 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.0 30.0 to 152.9 0.32 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -4.2 -4.5 to -89.2 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.16 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 4.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 1.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932026 INVEST 08/12/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932026 INVEST 08/12/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 36 37 36 33 37 36 35 39 45 44 40 50 63 64 18HR AGO 30 29 32 33 34 33 30 34 33 32 36 42 41 37 47 60 61 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 27 24 28 27 26 30 36 35 31 41 54 55 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 20 17 21 20 19 23 29 28 24 34 47 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT