* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932026 08/11/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 36 36 35 34 34 33 33 34 35 37 39 40 44 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 36 36 35 34 34 33 33 34 35 37 39 40 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 32 32 31 30 29 28 27 28 28 30 31 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 16 18 17 19 24 13 16 12 4 2 2 10 9 8 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -4 -1 -8 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -5 -4 0 2 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 261 275 295 302 306 333 1 347 5 2 132 148 182 180 173 161 137 SST (C) 26.8 26.1 25.6 25.1 24.9 23.9 23.5 23.3 23.1 23.1 24.0 25.2 25.8 25.4 25.4 25.0 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 126 119 114 109 107 99 95 94 92 92 98 107 113 108 107 103 99 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.2 -55.4 -55.7 -55.6 -55.3 -55.3 -55.1 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -54.8 -54.6 -55.5 -55.8 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.9 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 2 4 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 51 54 59 60 60 60 56 54 53 51 46 41 40 42 46 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -23 -26 -15 -25 -60 -81 -111 -138 -152 -138 -142 -140 -140 -123 -101 -97 200 MB DIV 49 22 10 14 9 -44 -14 -44 -22 -40 -41 -42 -16 -8 11 -9 -7 700-850 TADV -1 -5 21 12 9 15 9 18 12 -1 -2 -2 -1 1 -1 1 1 LAND (KM) 1058 1078 1143 1234 1339 1538 1691 1844 1713 1559 1575 1737 1903 2045 1845 1703 1611 LAT (DEG N) 37.1 37.2 37.3 37.5 37.7 38.3 39.1 40.0 40.1 39.2 37.4 35.6 34.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.0 50.1 47.3 44.6 42.2 38.1 35.0 32.1 29.5 27.5 27.4 29.0 31.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 23 22 20 18 15 12 11 9 9 10 12 12 10 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 22 CX,CY: 22/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 37.1 53.0 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932026 INVEST 08/11/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.63 1.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 30.0 to 152.9 0.35 0.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -21.3 -4.5 to -89.2 0.20 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 9.5% 7.2% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 6.3% 3.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 1.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 5.3% 3.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932026 INVEST 08/11/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932026 INVEST 08/11/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 36 36 35 34 34 33 33 34 35 37 39 40 44 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 34 33 32 32 31 31 32 33 35 37 38 42 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 29 28 27 27 26 26 27 28 30 32 33 37 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 21 20 19 19 18 18 19 20 22 24 25 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT