* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922026 10/05/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 46 50 60 57 60 61 61 49 37 26 25 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 28 27 27 27 27 30 31 30 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 26 26 27 27 27 27 29 26 21 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 19 20 21 20 18 27 28 31 32 32 33 33 33 46 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -4 -6 -7 0 3 -1 -2 -3 -2 -4 -3 -5 4 -5 1 SHEAR DIR 167 175 191 197 206 229 262 267 276 267 264 263 272 293 296 302 292 SST (C) 30.8 30.7 30.4 30.1 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.6 31.0 30.7 30.2 30.0 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 167 169 169 168 164 164 165 167 168 167 168 170 171 171 172 170 159 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 6 5 8 7 8 7 8 7 9 7 7 5 5 3 5 700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 79 77 77 75 77 77 76 75 71 69 62 58 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 7 8 10 14 15 21 21 26 28 29 23 17 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 37 34 34 35 30 24 49 86 118 130 117 64 14 -4 -43 -119 -94 200 MB DIV 24 42 42 47 44 66 58 43 47 55 49 28 21 11 -12 -29 10 700-850 TADV 6 7 6 2 1 0 0 0 1 3 4 0 -3 4 11 25 13 LAND (KM) 106 86 59 19 2 -23 -41 -41 -59 -46 3 105 268 411 449 199 51 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.1 22.3 22.3 22.4 22.2 21.5 20.5 19.8 19.5 19.8 20.5 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.4 96.7 97.2 97.6 97.8 98.0 97.8 97.5 97.1 96.8 96.4 95.7 94.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 4 4 3 2 2 5 5 3 1 3 6 9 10 11 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 40 39 42 29 29 24 16 12 7 5 3 33 40 46 0 17 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 30. 34. 37. 39. 39. 40. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -4. -10. -17. -21. -25. -30. -34. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 18. 16. 23. 25. 25. 16. 7. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 21. 25. 35. 32. 35. 37. 36. 24. 12. 1. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.0 96.4 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922026 INVEST 10/05/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.57 2.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 11.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.92 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 30.0 to 152.9 0.79 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -23.8 -4.5 to -89.2 0.23 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.32 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 15.6% 10.3% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 15.4% 7.3% 2.4% 1.0% 4.5% 6.0% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 9.5% Consensus: 2.5% 11.2% 6.0% 3.9% 0.3% 1.6% 5.7% 5.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922026 INVEST 10/05/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922026 INVEST 10/05/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 28 27 27 27 27 30 31 30 19 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 26 25 25 25 25 28 29 28 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 21 20 20 20 20 23 24 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT